Q1 2026 Earnings — Reported May 13, 2026
Revenue +684% YoY to $399M — Adj. EBITDA swings to +$130M profit
Nebius AI ARR hit $1.9B, up 50%+ sequentially. Gross margin expanded to 74%. EBITDA margin of 45% at the core AI unit nearly doubled QoQ. FY 2026 guidance reiterated: $3.0–3.4B revenue, $7–9B ARR, ~40% adj. EBITDA margin. CapEx raised to $20–25B. Meta deal expanded to $27B. Capacity sold out — demand exceeds supply.
Key Metrics — Q1 2026 Actuals
Group Revenue
$399M
+684% YoY · +75% QoQ
Nebius AI Revenue
$390M
+841% YoY · +82% QoQ
Gross Margin
74%
vs 51% Q1 2025
Group Adj. EBITDA
$130M
vs −$54M Q1 2025
AI EBITDA Margin
45%
vs 24% in Q4 2025
GAAP Net Income
$621M
Non-cash driven
Nebius AI ARR
$1.9B
+50% QoQ from $1.25B in Q4
Cash & Equivalents
$9.3B
+$6B raised YTD incl. $2B NVIDIA
Op. Cash Flow
$2.3B
vs −$198M Q1 2025. Prepayments driven.
Contracted Power
>3.5 GW
YE target raised to >4 GW
Beat / Miss Matrix
Beats
RevenueEst. $391.6M$399M (+1.9%)
EPSEst. −$0.69$2.11 (+367%)
Adj. EBITDAEst. $90.5M$130M (+44%)
Nebius AI ARRPrior $1.25B$1.9B (+52% QoQ)
Gross MarginEst. ~60%+74%
Pipeline Growth—3.5x QoQ expansion
Concerns
Revenue vs. Some Ests.Est. $593M (high end)$399M (−32% miss)
Adj. Net Loss—−$100.3M (wider)
EPS Quality—$780M non-cash ClickHouse gain
Q2 EBITDA MarginExpected ~45%Guided lower than Q1
CapEx guidancePrior $16–20BRaised $20–25B (dilution risk)
Insider Selling—~$18M shares sold last 3M
P&L Summary (USD millions)
Select Income Statement — Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025
Line Item
Q1 2026
Q1 2025
Change
Group Revenue
$399M
$51M
+684%
Nebius AI Revenue
$390M
$41M
+841%
Gross Margin
74%
~51%
+23pp
Group Adj. EBITDA
$130M
−$54M
Swing
Nebius AI Adj. EBITDA Margin
45%
—
vs 24% Q4
ClickHouse Non-Cash Gain
$780.6M
—
Non-cash
GAAP Net Income
$621.2M
−$104.3M
Swing
Adj. Net Loss
−$100.3M
−$83.6M
Wider
Operating Cash Flow
$2.3B
−$198M
Prepayments
Segments & CEO Quote
Nebius AI — Core Business (98% of Revenue)
Revenue Q1 2026$390M (+841% YoY)
AI Cloud ARR$1.9B (end of March)
Adj. EBITDA Margin45% (vs 24% Q4 2025)
GPU CapacitySold out — demand exceeds supply
Token FactoryInference optimization — strong PMF
Key CustomersMeta ($27B deal), Microsoft
NVIDIA PartnershipExemplar Cloud — GB300 status
Acquisitions & Investments
Eigen AI#1 inference speed (NVIDIA ranked)
ClarifaiSystem-level inference optimization
TavilyAI search & agentic capabilities
ClickHouse stake$780.6M non-cash revaluation gain
TripleTen / AvrideConsolidated investments
New PA data center1.2 GW — Pennsylvania site
"In Q1, we grew group revenue by 684% year-on-year to $399 million, up 75% from Q4. Once again, we sold out our capacity as demand continued to exceed available supply. Our pipeline grew 3.5x sequentially. The message from our customers is clear — they need more capacity, faster."
Arkady Volozh, CEO & Founder · Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 13, 2026
FY 2026 Guidance & Profitability Roadmap
Management Targets — Reiterated & Raised Q1 2026
FY 2026 Group Revenue
$3.0–3.4B
Reiterated
FY 2026 ARR Target
$7–9B
Reiterated
Group Adj. EBITDA Margin
~40%
FY 2026
Nebius AI EBITDA Margin Q1
45% ✓
Achieved
Connected Power YE 2026
800MW–1GW
Q3/Q4 ramp
Contracted Power YE 2026
>4 GW
Raised from 3GW
2026 CapEx Budget
$20–25B
Raised from $16–20B
Long-Term EBIT Margin Target
20–30%
Multi-year
Positives & Concerns
Positives
▲Revenue acceleration is structural — $399M in Q1 alone with 84% QoQ growth in the core AI unit. $1.9B ARR at quarter end implies Q2 revenue significantly higher if utilization holds.
▲45% EBITDA margin in the core AI business at this scale is exceptional. FY ~40% group margin guidance looks conservative given the Q1 baseline — management typically underpromises.
▲Meta $27B + Microsoft multi-year contracts provide extraordinary revenue visibility. $9.3B cash + $3.2B customer prepayments fund the CapEx buildout without equity dilution pressure.
▲Pipeline up 3.5x QoQ — demand is accelerating faster than capacity. GPU-native cloud with Eigen AI inference + Token Factory creates differentiated moat vs. AWS/Azure for AI workloads.
▲NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on GB300 — preferential access to next-gen hardware gives Nebius a structural advantage vs. traditional hyperscalers in AI infrastructure pricing and performance.
Concerns
▼GAAP EPS of $2.11 was 100% driven by a $780.6M non-cash ClickHouse revaluation. Adjusted net loss widened to $100.3M — the underlying business is still not profitable on a reported basis.
▼$20–25B CapEx in 2026 is a massive commitment. Any slowdown in customer prepayments or macro-driven AI spending hesitation could force equity dilution to fund buildout.
▼Revenue missed high-end estimates significantly ($399M vs $593M) — dispersion in analyst models is enormous, raising questions about forward visibility and guidance credibility.
▼Q2 margin guided lower than Q1 — investment timing means EBITDA margin dips before recovering in H2. Investor patience required through a volatile margin profile for the next 2 quarters.
▼Insider selling of $18M over last 3 months combined with DA Davidson downgrade to Neutral post-earnings signals some profit-taking at current valuation levels near $215/share.
Analyst Coverage — Post Q1 2026
Wall Street Ratings
| Firm | Rating | Price Target | Note |
|---|
| Northland Capital | Buy | $248 (raised) | Raised from $215 post Q1 beat |
| Citizens | Buy | $270 (raised) | Raised from $175 — conviction buyer |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | ~$160 | Initiated Overweight — AI infra thesis |
| Morgan Stanley | Buy | $144 (raised) | Raised from $126; cautious on valuation |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | $250 | Downgraded post-coverage assumption; valuation concern |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | — | Initiated neutral; monitoring capacity ramp |
| Consensus (~15 analysts) | Buy | $221.71 avg. | ~80% Buy ratings · PT range $120–$291 |
Earnings Verdict
Speculative Buy · Hypergrowth AI Infrastructure
Nebius delivered a genuinely strong Q1 on every metric that matters for an AI infrastructure buildout: revenue velocity, margin trajectory, ARR growth, and customer concentration in Meta and Microsoft providing multi-year visibility. The 45% EBITDA margin in the core business at this scale is exceptional — few infrastructure companies achieve this early in their ramp. The bear case is real: adjusted net loss is widening, CapEx guidance of $20–25B demands perfect execution, and the GAAP headline is flattering. Q2 will see margin pressure by management's own guidance — patience is required. The stock at ~$215 trades on a narrative of $7–9B ARR by year-end, which implies 3.7–4.7x revenue growth from the current run rate. If that lands, current valuation is defensible. Next earnings July 29, 2026.
Earnings Verdict
Speculative Buy
FY Revenue Guide
$3.0–3.4B
Next Earnings
Jul 29, 2026